2 races to go until NASCAR’s Chase

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series competitors pursuing a Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup berth only have two events remaining in the “Race to the Chase” – the 10-race stretch that precedes the Chase.
That means dwindling opportunity and mounting pressure. Sunday night’s Emory HealthCare 500 at Atlanta Motor Speedway is the first of those two opportunities, a stage where several top-12-ranked drivers – and perhaps a few below that 12th-place cutoff – hope to clinch Chase spots, or claw their way to eligibility.
What we know: Standings leader Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Shell/Pennzoil Chevrolet) and second-place Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont/Jeff Gordon Foundation Chevrolet) have clinched their berths.
Who’s next: Three drivers – third-place Kyle Busch (No. 18Pedigree Toyota), fourth-place Carl Edwards (No. 99 Aflac Ford) and fifth-place Denny Hamlin (No. 11 Sport Clips Toyota) – have very good shots at clinching at Atlanta.

Three others – sixth-place Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot Chevrolet), seventh-place Jeff Burton (No. 31 Cat Financial Chevrolet) and eighth-place Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Crown Royal Ford) – could clinch, depending on scenarios.
The remaining four drivers in the current top 12 – ninth-place Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowes/Kobalt Tools Chevrolet), 10th place Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge), 11th-place Greg Biffle (No. 16 Scotch Blue Ford) and 12th-place Clint Bowyer (No. 33 BB&T Chevrolet) – may have to wait a week, until the final event in the Race to the Chase, at Richmond International Raceway.
Kyle Busch owns Sunday’s most favorable scenario. He’ll clinch with a finish of 40th or better with no laps led, 42nd or better with at least one lap led or 43rd or better with the most laps at Atlanta.
Edwards’ and Hamlin’s scenarios are a little tougher, but similar. Edwards will clinch Sunday with a finish of 21st or better with no laps led, 23rd or better with at least one lap led or 25th or better with the most laps led. Hamlin will clinch with a finish of 20th or better with no laps led, 22nd or better with at least one lap led or 23rd or better with the most laps led.
Stewart, Burton and Kenseth have a bit more work to do. Stewart must finish 19th or better with no laps led, 21st or better with at least one lap led or 23rd or better with the most laps led. Burton must finish 17th or better with no laps led, 19th or better with at least one lap led or 21st or better with the most laps led. Kenseth must finish 15th or better with no laps led, 17th or better with at least one lap led or 19th or better with the most laps led.
Johnson, Kurt Busch and Biffle need really good Atlanta performances. Johnson, the reigning and fourtime series champion, must finish 10th or better with no laps led, 11th or better with at least one lap led or 13th or better with the most laps led. Once he clinches, Johnson becomes the only driver to participate in all seven Chases.
Kurt Busch must finish ninth or better with no laps led, 10th or better with at least one lap led or 11th or better with most laps led, to clinch his Chase berth. Biffle must finish fourth or better with no laps led, fifth or better with at least one lap led or seventh or better with the most laps led.
Bowyer needs a superior showing. Possible? Yes, but much more likely that Bowyer clinches his Chase berth at Richmond. He heads to Atlanta 100 points ahead of 13th-place Jamie McMurray (No. 1 McDonald’s Chevrolet).  That means he must gain 96 points on 13th.
Don’t forget: Twenty bonus points still are available. Following Richmond, Chase drivers are seeded according to the number of wins they accrued in the season’s first 26 races. Each win is worth 10 points.