NASCAR Wraps Up 2011 Regular Season At Richmond
In no time at all, the 2011 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series regular season will be no more. Its ending will fit perfectly with its beginning, and everything in between.
What started with Trevor Bayne’s stirring victory in the Daytona 500, continued with a record-tying finish at Talladega Superspeedway, a mix of victories from usual suspects (Kyle Busch, Jimmie Johnson, etc.) and newbies (Regan Smith, Paul Menard, David Ragan and Marcos Ambrose) and Jeff Gordon’s historic 85th victory all ends this Saturday night at Richmond International Raceway.
At what many call the perfect track, we could all see the perfect ending.
So much is known about the makeup of the 2011 Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup. Yet, so much can still happen. Nine of the 12 spots are locked up. The top eight drivers – Johnson, Busch, Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth, Gordon, Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch and Ryan Newman – have each clinched at top-10 spot. Brad Keselowski, with three wins, has locked up at least a Wild Card berth.
After Saturday night’s race, the top 10 drivers make up the first part of the 12-driver Chase. Spots 11 and 12 go to those drivers outside the top 10 with the most wins, provided they are in the top 12. The Wild Card tiebreaker is points position.
Only three spots remain. And thanks to the Wild Card factor – which is in its inaugural year – a whopping 14 drivers remain mathematically eligible.
In terms of drivers outside the top 10, positions 11-23 are all mathematically eligible for
a Chase nod. In 2005, seven drivers outside the top 10 still had a mathematical chance, the previous high going into Richmond.
A tale of the tape of the 14…
Dale Earnhardt Jr.: A finish of 20th or better at Richmond will lock him into the Chase. Even if Keselowski does knock Earnhardt out of the top 10, he could still earn a Chase berth if there is only one winner from spots 11th to 20th, a mathematical possibility.
Tony Stewart: A finish of 18th or better will lock him into the Chase. Like Earnhardt, even if Keselowski does knock Stewart out of the top 10, Stewart could still earn a Chase berth if there is only one winner from spots 11th to 20th.
Denny Hamlin: A win, and he’s in. Hamlin doesn’t have to win, though. If he stays ahead of all one-win drivers, and there are no other two-win drivers inside the top 20, he’s in the Chase. Also, if Keselowski does vault into the top 10, Hamlin could still make the Chase if there is a two-win driver from 11th to 20th as long as he’s higher in points than any other one-win driver.
AJ Allmendinger: Allmendinger is where the Wild Card drama starts to ratchet up. Points be damned. A win is the ONLY thing that matters for him, and a number of other drivers. He’ll need a win and movement up the points to nab the tie-breaker. He finished seventh at Richmond in April.
Clint Bowyer: Of the winless drivers, Bowyer might be the best bet. Bowyer won here in 2008, and has an average finish of 9.5. He needs a win, and some help.
Greg Biffle: One of six winless drivers who won in 2010, Biffle’s best Richmond finish was third in 2005. He needs a win, and some help.
Martin Truex Jr.: Two of his last four finishes this season have been in the top five. His best Richmond finish is fifth in 2008. He needs a win, and some help.
Kasey Kahne: Kahne, who needs a win and some help, won at Richmond in 2005, his first career victory.
Joey Logano: Needs a win and help; best Richmond finish: fourth in this race last season.
Mark Martin: Needs a win and help; won at Richmond in 1990.
Paul Menard: Win, and he’s in. Pretty simple. His finishes at Richmond haven’t been so easy. His best: 16th in 2007.
Marcos Ambrose: If he wins, and gets into the top 20, he’s in. Consider him a solid dark horse candidate. Two of his last three Richmond finishes were in the top 10.
Juan Pablo Montoya: Needs a win and help. Best finish was sixth in May of last year.
David Ragan: If he wins, and gets into the top 20, he’s in. Finished fourth in April, and third in 2007.
